Wildcats on edge: 'The case against ...'

With every passing day and every approaching game, the Big Blue Nation's collective blood pressure goes through the roof. Every night, one of ESPN's 417 college basketball "analysts" has his (Digger) or her (Gottleib) say about the Cats' fate. So I have mine as well. Free country, and all that rot.

Yesterday, we took a positive spin on things (as we are wont to do here at Bogans' Heroes). Today, we get down to realism and look at the reasons we Cats fans may be staring into our beers come Selection Sunday. As noted before, the Cats "lucked" out in that they have two huge SEC games with which to prove themselves. A win in either helps tremendously, and a pair of wins probably makes all this machination and number crunching moot.

However, with two to play, and living in a vaccuum, here is why the Cats stay home:

The Tangibles

Kentucky has 10 losses on the season, 4 in 2005 and 6 in 2006.

The Cats have suffered a 26-point loss (neutral to Indiana) and a 27-point loss (at Kansas) this season, both on national television. Each was the biggest loss for a Tubby Smith-coached Kentucky team.

Kentucky has suffered through a pair of three-game losing streaks.

UK stands in third place in the SEC East (8-6), and Florida has tie-breaker for SEC tourney first-round bye if the two teams are tied at season's end.

Kentucky's simulated RPI stands at 41 -- with quality wins over a bottomed-out Louisville and a fading West Virginia losing some of their luster.

The Wildcats have lost 4 of their last 7 games.

Kentucky has yet to beat any of the teams currently 1 or 2 in the SEC (LSU, Bama, Tenn., Florida). A last second win over Arkansas is the only thing keeping them from 0-5 against the SEC's best.

Tubby Smith's bunch is a lowly 2-8 versus the RPI top 50, and 1-5 against the top 25 (WVU).

The SEC currently has 4 solid picks in Alabama (quality wins), LSU, Florida and Tennessee. Arkansas is on a roll, and has upended the Gators, Kansas, UT and Bama. That leaves the Cats as the probable 6th team seeking a bid, a tenuous position given the SEC is the 4th rated conference and the Cats' lack of marquee wins.

The Intangibles

Tubby Smith has struggled all year to find consistency, a benchmark the committee looks for when selecting at-large teams. As recently as four games ago, the Cats shuffled their lineup, and they have no streak of more than 5 wins this season to lean on.

Kentucky is a big name, and a big target. Should the committee come down to UK and a mid-major with 20+ wins, the Cats may actually suffer from being made an example of the way Indiana and Notre Dame have been in recent years.

The lack of quality wins UK has is a big factor. Losses happen -- Michigan State has 9 itself -- but UK has only beaten the teams it was supposed to beat, and has struggled with even some of those.

The Wildcats' big home win over then-No. 4 Louisville is useless now, as the Cardinals have flopped their way to a sub-50 RPI and a losing conference record. Huge losses to Kansas and IU only further cement the Cats' big-game woes.

The committee claims it doesn't examine past success, and if that is true, the Cats' merits this year may not be enough to squeak them in.

As noted yesterday, the bottom line is clear: the Cats must win out. A split with Florida and Tennessee is doable, but doesn't absolve any SEC tourney troubles. Leave it up to the committee and a few upstart mid-majors who lose in conference tournaments and the Cats will have a potentially disastrous situation.

Tubby doesn't need to be told how important this is ... and here's hoping neither do his "Unpredictables."