Wildcats on edge: 'The case for ...'

By now, only the most diehard optimist or ambivalent loner feels truly confident in Kentucky's receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. With two huge regular season games remaining, there is much to play for. And the SEC tournament -- a Tubby strength in past years -- also looms large as a way for the Cats to merit a backdoor in with a run. The Wildcats are in perhaps a favorable position, as opposed to, say, the Louisville Cardinals. However, there are many mid-major and similarly mediocre high major programs competing for the final few at-large spots.

Before the Cats take the floor in Knoxville on Wednesday, Bogans' Heroes takes a two-part look at the NCAA tournament resume of the "Unpredictables":

The Tangibles

Kentucky stands at 18 wins (against 10 losses) -- 9 in 2005, 9 in 2006.

Kentucky sits at #41 in the collegerpi.com simulated rankings.

Of its 18 wins, 2 came over teams ranked in the top 15 at the time (West Virginia #7, Louisville #4).

The Wildcats are 8-6 in the SEC, assured of no worse than a .500 conference record. The SEC is the RPI #4 best, according to KenPom's RPI rankings.

Kentucky has won 3 of its last 4, and 8 of 12.

The Cats have 2 wins over top-50 RPI teams, and 8 over top-100 RPI foes.

Kentucky's strength of schedule is a strong #24.

Kentucky's strength of schedule and RPI will most likely rise after games against Florida and Tennessee.

The Intangibles

Kentucky's "bad" losses were mostly to out of conference teams on the road, and minus their (theoretically) starting center, Randolph Morris. Despite going just 8-6 with Morris, Kentucky has played better, and those 6 losses come in a total of 39 points, or roughly 6.5 points per loss. Losses, still, but not the blowouts from December and January.

The Wildcats started 0-2 in the conference as they struggled with the reinsertion of Morris into lineup. Since that start, they are 8-4.

The Wildcats bring with them a huge travelling show, capable of selling out first-round venues, no matter how much they have struggled. This fan loyalty cuts to the heart of the NCAA's mirage campaign which is predicated on (a) competitive games, (b) fair assessment of ability and (c) ticket sales, probably in reverse order. Ergo, the pull of a bubble Kentucky team could come down to money. Who would be more likely to generate revenue, Wichita State or Kentucky?

Tubby Smith's track record in the NCAA tournament, while not to many UK fans' high standards perhaps, is excellent. In eight prior NCAAs as UK coach, he has failed to reach the second weekend only twice, and has never lost a first-round game. If the committee decides to take a look at potential success in assessing two or three worthy teams, such history could help the Cats.

Kentucky has star power in Rajon Rondo and Morris, not to mention Patrick Sparks, whose memorable three in the Elite Eight last year made him a highlight reel regular.

The bottom line is that, even in a rosy scenario, Kentucky is in must-win mode. Were the Cats 23-5, Saturday's loss at LSU would have seemed a missed opportunity, but a valiant effort against the probable SEC champs. But facing a sweaty Selection Sunday, such losses tear holes in the "good" resume. The Cats' failures against teams like Vanderbilt and Alabama hurt, and were it not for some Rondo heroics (Central Florida, Arkansas), this conversation would most likely not be happening at all.

A win over Tennessee, currently an amazing fourth in the collegeRPI index, would probably cement a bid, though wins over both UT and Florida would allow for an SEC tourney flop, while a single win in these last three might not cover their ass.

Would Kentucky be in if the NCAA selection was today? I would lean towards no.

Hardly a pessimist, it seems to this writer that one only has to look at how the Cats fared against quality opponents most of the year to see that marquee wins are lacking. These next two games could determine whether Tubby Smith ekes into next season with a whimper or flames out this year with a roar, leaving a long offseason of gripes, concerns and calls for his head.