A schism, and its unknown fate

There is a civil war afoot in the bluegrass. It's pitting brother against brother, mother against son and well-mannered fan against well-intentioned fan. It's often described as a battle over "truth" or devotion. And it has no discernable end in sight.

With every struggle, and especially every loss this troubled season, the din of discontent grows louder among the Big Blue faithful. It would be easy to say that it is simply a vocal minority -- and there is an extremely vocal minority -- but there is more to it than that. That all is not well in the House of Tubby is painfully clear, and it's only a matter of time before the media latches onto what is sure to be a juicy story.

Coach Tubby Smith is in his ninth year at the University of Kentucky, and in that time has amassed a record that speaks for itself: 234 wins, only 66 losses (.780 win %), 1 NCAA title, 4 Elite Eights, 6 Sweet 16s, a share or win of the SEC East 8 years running and the most oft-mentioned stat, 1 Final Four. His numbers as head man are among the best in the nation, surpassed only by a who's who of coaching elite. Additionally, the University has reportedly raised more money for its athletic department during Tubby's tenure than at any time in school history, enabling tangible results in women's basketball, golf and soccer, among other non-hoops ventures. He is uniformly respected by peer and foe alike, and is still mentioned as a potential NBA hire for his basketball acumen and status.


But for plenty of fans that doesn't tell the whole story.

During Tubby's tenure, 12 players have transferred or departed, many of them for disciplinary reasons. Most were ancillary to the team's plans -- the Bernard Cotes, Nate Knights and Corey Searses of the world -- but a few were genuinely talented, if difficult, players. Rashaad Carruth, Jason Parker, Desmond Allison and Marvin Stone were all highly recruited and contributing performers, and all greased their way out of Lexington with questionable decision-making and/or outright insubordination. However, the turnover has left Kentucky with holes to fill nearly every season of Tubby's tenure, and with a reputation among fans and a few pundits of a program consistent only in its inconsistency.

Three ten-loss seasons (with a fourth potentially looming) have offset the more recent successes (a nation's best 87 wins the past three seasons), and Smith's troubles with recruiting some of the more high-profile and highly regarded players the past two seasons have only added kindling to the fire of those who would depose Kentucky's hoops king.

Neither Smith's vast sucesses nor his visible failures are reason alone to merit the pressures on him. Both combined, however, probably are. Breeding a reputation as a winner has its legacies, namely keeping up with yourself. And a taste of the sweet nectar of ultimate victory is enough to keep fans eternally thirsty, and impatient for another swig. Thus, Smith has found himself in an impossible situation: you create expectations that you cannot possibly live up to.

It is often said -- including by me -- that at Kentucky the expectations are part of the job. Just as a huge salary, perks, respect, recruiting advantages (See also Meeks, Jodie), television exposure and many other things are. Kentucky fans demand excellence, and for eight years Tubby has mostly delivered; if not to the level of some, then to the general delight of most.

Now, with what may be his most disapointing season at UK, Smith finds himself at a crossroads. The once vocal minority has grown, and while the Cats miss Chuck Hayes and Kelenna Azubuike's leadership, they have a team they could have more or less expected back, replete with three McDonald's All-American starters, including two with professional scout attention (Rajon Rondo, Randolph Morris ... Joe Crawford may be likewise soon enough). And yet, the struggles have been many this year.

Now come rumors and rumblings -- and at this point, that is all that they are -- of dissention, infighting, frustration and more potential player turnover. Yoked together, Tubby's recruiting misses and his on-court struggles this year have become a weight to bear, and one wonders what the man Tubby Smith is thinking about the coach Tubby Smith. Are the pressures of the job, and they are as widely acknowledged as they are weighty, worth the perks for a man whose credentials and pedigree would land him 98% of the NCAA jobs and some potential NBA jobs available? And what does it mean exactly to win?


Were this April 5 and there was no more basketball to play, we might see quickly what it meant. But it's February 10, and there is a season to salvage. A 15-8 season, to be precise, one with remaining potential and untapped glories to boot. There was no Villanova 1985 until there was one ... likewise for Wisconsin and North Carolina 2000 or Kansas 1988. This isn't to imply that any of these miracle runs are forthcoming. This team has struggled with consistency and focus mightily of late. However, there is also no way of knowing what awaits this team, and, by proxy, its embattled coach.

I'll leave it to the rumor mongers to posit what will happen, and will suffice to leave it at what might happen. Tubby Smith has earned the right to clear his name and his legacy at Kentucky. In many ways, without burnishing Rick Pitino's ego any more than it already has been, he had a tough job in following one of the more successful collegiate coaching tenures of recent times. And Tubby has performed ably in doing that, coming up just short on three occasions in which a bounce, some health or a little luck might have altered the course of Kentucky hoops history. That being said, I and many others believe in the oft-repeated adage that "winning begets luck."

I would be very surprised, and frankly just fine with it, if Tubby was the Kentucky coach for ten more years. But that doesn't mean I want to see what has transpired this season for ten more years. Not by a long shot. However, Final Four appearances aside, this is clearly the anomaly. Tubby's "down" years were the 2000 team that lost two potential starters to transfer (M. Bradley, R. Hogan), a Sweet 16 Team Turmoil season (2002) and this one, which remains unfinished. He has yet to win fewer than 20 games in a season at UK, and has a strong recruiting class -- potentially even stronger with a few unsigned players still considering the Cats -- coming in this fall. To declare in the middle of a tough trip that the whole adventure had not been worth it is the sort of negativity and short-sightedness that warrants all the jokes and bad coverage that it understandably gets. In other words, Tubby Smith is not going to be fired one year removed from a 29-win, Elite Eight season, three years removed from a National Coach of the Year award and with a team still within reach of 20 wins.


However, whether Smith feels the end game is worth the weight it carries with it, and whether an option that previously seemed less desirable presents itself this time around and strikes him differently, one cannot say with much certainty. Our coach is a commodity, and it would take his leaving for many fans to realize what it is they had in Orlando Smith.

Smith is not perfect, and I'll go on record as saying his and his staff's performance this year has been miserable. It would be a shame if this year's struggles were the legacy by which a national title-winning coach ultimately became judged. And that possibility, more than any, is what leads me to believe that Tubby would rather go out on top than suffer the ignominity of leaving when things got tough. That doesn't strike me as the sort of thing an uber-successful African-American coach, one of 15 children, a man of grace and loyalty would accept.

Much like an empassioned and basketball-savvy Big Blue Nation would be unlikely to accept continued mediocrity.

That there is trouble in the House of Tubby is undeniable. That is is solved by the ousting of Smith is equally unrealistic. The schism between the good and the bad, between the desire for fulfilled expectations -- however lofty -- and the unreasonable beliefs of the few, between the pressures of winning big at the NCAA's all-time winningest program and the Hall of Fame legacy that such winning would bring is not so vast, but growing.

Tubby has shown himself capable of fantastic turnarounds and colossal overhauls before. Only time will tell which it takes this time around.