Big Game in the Bayou

The stakes go up tremendously for the Wildcats today with an SEC road game at Lousiana State. A win would put the Cats in the driver's seat for an at-large bid (something I feel they would get with two wins in the next four anyway), and keep pace with the Gators in the East Division. Even moreso, a win would give Kentucky a so-called quality win over a ranked team, something their tournament resume is direly lacking at this juncture.

A few keys to look for:

Continued strong defensive pressure -- In the three recent wins, all with Tubby Smith's new lineup rotation, the starters -- while offensively challenged -- have set the tone with excellent defense and solid ballhandling. In all three games, the Cats held the opponent in check until the first substitutions. Kentucky then brings in its "B" team of three McDonald's All-Americans, something even a talented Tigers squad can't come close to matching. If LSU breaks the starters down quickly and forces Tubby to go to Rajon Rondo, Joe Crawford and Randolph Morris early, the pattern shifts dramatically.

Which Rondo shows up? -- The birthday boy on Wednesday, Rondo looked like the 20+ assists in a game man he was at Oak Hill rather than the confused and sulking benched star he was against South Carolina. It was a welcome change, and would be a harbringer for the remainder of the season. While 12 assists would be unexpected, a 6-assist, low turnover game while pestering Tack Minor and the other Tigers guards would be much needed. Making his free throws and avoiding bad shots would be icing on the cake for the Cats.

Karate Morris? -- If Morris must play early and often, foul trouble will be key to the game. Unlike against Ole Miss or even USC, Kentucky's big man will be most likely matched up against Glen "Big Baby" Davis, as skilled a post player as there is in the conference. Morris' main concern should be rebounding and smart defensive play (go straight up with those arms, Gimel!) rather than trying to force the offense. Rondo penetrating and dishing could be huge for Morris getting on track early. Negating LSU's interior offense would be tatamount to victory for the Cats.

Who steps up? -- The Cats have gotten outstanding individual performances -- sometimes from unlikely sources -- in most of their big wins this season. Despite the hopes of Kentucky fans, I don't expect to see similar results from walk-on Preston LeMaster against the more athletic and talented Tigers today, however stranger things have happened. More likely would be a standout offensive performance from Crawford or one of the two junior utilitymen Bobby Perry or Sheray Thomas. A double-digit -- and, more importantly, solid shooting -- game from either could be the difference.

Trust in Tubby -- The single biggest factor down ther stretch for the Wildcats is their newfound trust in the head man. Once Smith exerted his might and reshuffled the lineup two things have happened: (1) renewed focus on defense, Tubby's signature at UK, and (2) better play from the star sophomores as they accepted their coaches' doctrine. If these Cats are to walk away victorious in this one, and in upcoming grudge matches with Tennessee and Florida, they will do so with defensive pressure and continued unselfish offensive play, not with individual skill. This is not because they are lacking that skill, but because that's the formula that works for Tubby.

I think the Cats can win, but wouldn't be disheartened beyond hope if they do not. The worst case scenario is Morris foul trouble, Rondo reverting to the one-on-one offense and three-point shots and an off night for Patrick Sparks and Crawford shooting the ball. That would most likely mean a double-digit loss, something the bubble-riffic Cats cannot afford at this stage.

But I suspect there is a surprise in store for Cats fans, either from deep on the bench or from one of the stars, that could make this another step on the road to recovery for the Cats.