Pediction time: UK tops Iowa

Yeah, that's probably not that surprising coming from a UK homer, but let's take a closer look at the matchups, and my reasoning.


Point Guard:

Rajon Rondo vs. Jeff Horner -- Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, one of their strengths is their senior lead guard, whose strong three-point shooting (41% last year, 46% in two cupcake wins this year) and passing (7.5 assists a game in '06) are key the Iowa offense. Why is that unfortunate? Because he'll be opposed Monday by a guard who may the nation's best defensive player. Rondo is averaging 3.5 steals a game (UK record 87 last year). Rondo has also stepped up his offensive game this season, leading the club with 18 points, 5.5 assists and 9.5 rebounds a contest two games in. Granted, those rebound numbers will even out, but head-to-head, even though Horner is among the Big Ten's best 1 guards, Rondo will win this matchup hands-down. That said, UK cannot rely on Rondo alone. Unlike in their first two games, the Cats need to give him scoring help, and must help him rebound. Advantage: Kentucky.

Shooting Guard:

Patrick Sparks vs. Mike Henderson -- UK's clutchest player not named Ravi Moss last year, Sparks has looked lost in the first two games of the '06 campaign. However, some of that may be due to being shadowed across the floor. Sparks has trouble creating his shot, but can be deadly as a spot-up shooter. And for Kentucky to have any national success, he'll need to do just that. Despite his slow start, I look for a better game from Sparks tonight in Kansas City. Henderson is not a scorer, a shooter or a rebounder. He is a defensive presence, and if he can contain Sparks (or Moss), he'll help the Hawkeyes even the playing field. Still, Sparks was Kentucky's leading returning scorer, and to assume he'll be negated is to assume too much. last year, Kentucky lost only one game in which Sparks hit two or more 3's ... the Elite Eight heartbreaker to MSU. Advantage: Kentucky.

Small Forward:

Joe Crawford vs. Adam Haluska -- The Kentucky backcourt is their strength, while Iowa excels the closer they get to the hoop. Haluska (13 pts, 4 asts), now a junior, is a slasher, but has good range on his jumper. He's athletic enough to get the job done, and, most importantly, draws defensive attention from the opposition. In their Guardians wins at home, the Cats struggled to contain the quick shooting small forwards of both South Dakota State and Lipscomb, and Haluska is a huge step up in both talent and big game experience. Crawford should get the yeoman's minutes tonight, especially with word coming through the grapevine that Bobby Perry may be limited due to an ankle injury. I think that is still OK. Crawford has shown immense patience thus far, preferring to let the game come to him rather than force up shots. Tubby seems fine with this, but to the observer, it seems clear a slightly more aggressive Crawford (particularly on the glass) would do wonders for a UK team lacking star power. After a solid first game, Crawford was ineffective in Game 2 and found himself riding pine. A dynamic Joe C. would be an X-factor. Advantage: Iowa.


Power Forward:

Sheray Thomas/Rekalin Sims vs. Greg Brunner -- Coach Smith has yet to show he'll start Rekalin, despite all evidence that points to that being a no-brainer decision. Tubby has his reasons. I have posted before that Sheray could hold a big key to this season's success or failure, especially in light of Randolph Morris' absence. Thomas has been very hit-and-miss thus far, but he is third on the team in rebounds, and second in minutes. In the deciding moments of the Lipscomb game, it was Thomas on the floor in a small lineup that worked. Sims (9 ppg, 5.5 reb) got trigger happy from deep in the second game, I thought, and this team needs him on the blocks, not launching threes, despite the crowd's obvious joy. Brunner, meanwhile, is a brute, the MVP of the Hawkeyes and an All-Big Ten performer. Averaging 16 points and 7.5 boards through two games, Brunner is the sort of low post threat that keeps Tubby up nights with his non-rebounding team. Rekalin probably mathes up better with the stronger Brunner, and Sheray offers up a nice change of pace. Iowa needs Brunner more than Kentucky needs Sims, but he's also more consistent. If Sims can come close to a double-double, it would help UK close the rebounding gap and give them a good chance to win. Advantage: Iowa.

Center:

Lukasz Obrzut/Shagari Alleyne vs. Erek Hansen -- Despite much criticism (and deservedly so), Orbzut has only played 17 total minutes this year. The reason? He's been terrible. He has no rebounds. Seriously. The mere fact that a man 7'0" tall can have no rebounds ina basketball game at any level baffles me, and I gather it baffles Tubby even moreso. Tubby continues to start Woo, and only he knows why. Maybe it's to try and break him of his funk, maybe he runs offensive sets more, but on a team devoid of rebounders, Woo ain't getting the job done. Alleyne was great in one of the exhibition games, I thought, but he tires easily and struggles with quicker centers. I think Alleyne will play lots against Hansen (8 ppg, 5 reb), a shot blocker but not a scoring threat, and Shagari could find himself with 8-10 points again on dunks alone. Judging from the numbers, Hansen and Alleyne are very similar -- both offer high percentage shots and blocks and not many minutes. If Alleyne can score some and block 3-4 shots, it would negate anything Hansen has to offer. Advantage: Even.

Bench (key reserves):

Kentucky (Bradley, Moss, Perry, Carter) vs. Iowa (Gorney, Thomas, Thompson, Freeman) -- The Kentucky bench is among the deepest in the nation. In fact, other than Rondo, there's a good chance that Sims, Moss, Alleyne and Bradley could be the starters, thus making the other players I used as comparisons above the bench. Tubby's best teams have interchangeable parts, and that is one reason I have high hopes for this team, Morris or no. Tubby's substitution patterns annoy some fans, but I see how he works to see the right combination on a given night and -- generally -- he does just that and wins the game. Bradley, when he's under control, could start for almost any team in the country, and Moss is probably the best walk-on in the nation. His three-point shooting is fantastic, and he's clutch as they come. Perry may be banged up, but he also might play through it because that's how he is. Carter is a fan favorite (I'll eventually post my thoughts on that one) but hasn't shown much against any real competition, mostly because there hasn't been any. The Iowa bench is also deep, and with experience. The reserves are less talented than the starters, but they offer some skills. Gorney is a big boy, and Thomas is a dunking machine. Thompson and Freeman offer playmaking and defense off the pine. In terms of effectiveness, there is little comparison, as Kentucky boasts a two-deep rotation at each position. If the Hawkeyes have to rely on their bench, UK will win the ballgame. Advantage: Kentucky.

Coaching:

Tubby Smith vs. Steve Alford -- Alford has had his moments in Iowa City, but not all of them have been good ones. A steady diet of NCAA appearances have him still in the "up and comers" category, but he has yet to break through even as far as his Southwest Missouri teams did. He's a fine coach, but not in the same league as Smith, who is one of three African-American coaches to ever win an NCAA title (John Thompson, Nolan Richardson). Tubby's graceful under the glare of the UK spotlight, and has amassed an impressive wins total in his time in Lexington, with a gaudy 221-58 record, second only to Duke nationally. When fans complain because you only came within a hair's breath of the Final Four, you're doing OK in my book, and there are fewer coaches more respected for their in-game performance than the Tubster. Alford may be capable of big things, but Tubby has already proven he is, and that's the difference between the UK coach and the Iowa coach. Always. Advantage: Kentucky.

I'll admit up front (as I did above) to being biased to some degree, but i also watch more basketball, and absorb more of it, than your average fan, I think. This UK team isn't perfect -- far from it. But it has the various pieces in place, if not humming yet. Rondo is a difference-making talent, just as the now long-dismissed Pierre Pierce was for the Hawkeyes. Brunner and Haluska are good players, but the sum of the Cats' parts is greater than that of its opponent, and that's why Kentucky will win by 8, 78-70, in the semis of the Guardians Classic on Monday night.