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Only the Wildcats fans can make ... A Sea of Blue.

Cats find spine at Win-nessee

Must-win. It's one of the most overused phrases in sports, especially given the number of times that "must-win" situations are followed by not-win outcomes. Kentucky's on-again, off-again hoopsters have uttered this phrase several times in recent
months, only to falter in the clutch, rendering must-win games didn't-win losses.

But not Wednesday.

Feeding off their embattled coach, the Wildcats seemed enlivened in the second half -- and what most Big Blue faithful wouldn't give to have heard that halftime speech -- scoring 7 straight after the break to turn a tenuous deficit into a possession by possession game.

Much of the credit for this goes to senior guard Brandon Stockton, the mighty mite whose injection into the starting lineup steadied the Cats, and whose dive-on-the-floor guts propelled his more talented teammates back into the NCAA at-large universe.

All year most UK fans have pointed to the gifted but enigmatic sophomore class as proof either that Tubby Smith can recruit, or as evidence that he cannot coach. Point guard Rajon Rondo, he of the lofty potential and NBA dreams, was unstoppable in the second half ... literally. Rondo hit all of his second-frame shots, a series of dribble drives and acrobatic layups that kept UK in or close to the lead. The Louisville native tacked on 8 assists in the game for good measure, all in 22 minutes of action.

"We didn't argue with each other and we didn't try to take it one-on-one," Rondo said. "That's a big key. When we got down 14, we started to play more as a team. ... It was a key win, we came off a tough loss and everyone was counting us out. So we stuck together and we were probably the only ones who believed that we could win."

I'll admit, like a lot of fans who have suffered through this most un-Kentucky of hoops seasons, I began to doubt seriously at 21-7 Vols in the first half. But unlike many, I also remembered what a surge of emotion Senior Day can bring to a home team. And I've seen enough teams weather that emotion against the Cats that I wasn't completely down. As it turns out, thankfully, neither were the Cats.

This was vintage Tubby Smith coaching, making the necessary adjustments at seemingly every juncture. Smith entrusted handling the Cat-killer Chris Lofton to none other than Patrick Sparks, whose crab-walk "quickness" hardly instills fans with the image of a defensive stopper. And yet, on Wednesday, Sparks answered the call, holding Lofton 3 points below his average, and 16 below his total in UT's crushing win at Rupp in early February.

Smith continued to pull the right strings all night, inserting a more confident Rondo and Randolph Morris into the second half starting lineup, as if rewarding them for their strong first-half performances. Such faith in his stars usually pays big dividends down the road, and most UK fans believe -- and Tubby more or less acknowledged -- that we are finally seeing the team that was selected preseason top 15 by most pundits. After surrendering 53% shooting in the first half, the Cats buckled down enough in this see-saw affair to bring the Vols back to earth in the second (44%). That defense proved key on a night when big game Ravi Moss didn't have it, and turnovers threatened to spoil the Cats' revival hopes.

I echo the sentiments of several fans, who lauded Smith's calling Joe Crawford's number in a spread set late in the game. Tubby took appropriate heat for handing his season to Sheray Thomas against LSU last time out, and while Joe C's three-point attempt with 10 seconds left missed, and could still be called ill-advised given there was time left on the clock, Tubby' recruited stars to be stars, not decoys. At least one of the super sophs agreed.

"Coach showed he believed in me," said Rondo. "So I had to believe in myself."

Such sentiments can mean all the difference when the game is on the line in a tournament setting. And Smith has capably broken his squad down and built them back up in his image, something that could have happened much sooner had Morris been a part of the team on the floor from Day 1. Inserted into the rotation at SEC season, there was really no time for development or growth, only winning and -- more often then we thought -- losing.

Morris has grown tremendously in stature and confidence over the past few weeks. Against the height-challenged Vols, the Wildcat big man looked like an All-American, scoring on a variety of post moves, and drawing shooting fouls at will. Foul trouble kept Morris on the pine for much of the first half, but he had more than produced in his 9 early minutes, scoring 14 points and grabbing a slew of big rebounds to help keep the Cats in it.

Tubby has adapted well after rather stubbornly sticking to his script for much of the SEC's first half. Fact is, he didn't have muhc of a choice. After losing the Vandy game at Vandy for a three-game losing streak, the Cats had to make a change. I woudn't have expected Brandon Stockton, Woo and Moss starting, but that's why I'm on this end of the tube, not on Tubby's end.

All in all, an immensely satisfying 80-78 win in a hostile arena with everything on the line. So who's ready to do it all again Sunday?

Shaping up

The victory puts the Cats in much better shape from a resume standpoint. The win at UT jumps UK to #33 in KenPom/ESPN.com mock RPI indeces.

With a strength of schedule of 21, the Cats could use a win over the Gators on Sunday to solidify the at-large beyond doubt, and to improve any potential seeding. It's starting to feel like UK basketball again!

The Prediction Biz

CBSSportsline.com scribe Greg Doyel has made his living -- and seems to be enjoying it, understandably -- the past few years by being a "stir the pot" guy. His bosses clearly enjoy the hits they receive whenever his latest hatchet job posts. I can fault him for that, so long as his facts are in order.

But he certainly borders on the excessive with random "predictions" about a team like Kentucky "avoiding a four-game losing streak."

I can understand looking at the situation and pondering four losses, but the guy doesn't have to revel in himself quite so much.

Wildcats on edge: 'The case against ...'

With every passing day and every approaching game, the Big Blue Nation's collective blood pressure goes through the roof. Every night, one of ESPN's 417 college basketball "analysts" has his (Digger) or her (Gottleib) say about the Cats' fate. So I have mine as well. Free country, and all that rot.

Yesterday, we took a positive spin on things (as we are wont to do here at Bogans' Heroes). Today, we get down to realism and look at the reasons we Cats fans may be staring into our beers come Selection Sunday. As noted before, the Cats "lucked" out in that they have two huge SEC games with which to prove themselves. A win in either helps tremendously, and a pair of wins probably makes all this machination and number crunching moot.

However, with two to play, and living in a vaccuum, here is why the Cats stay home:

The Tangibles

Kentucky has 10 losses on the season, 4 in 2005 and 6 in 2006.

The Cats have suffered a 26-point loss (neutral to Indiana) and a 27-point loss (at Kansas) this season, both on national television. Each was the biggest loss for a Tubby Smith-coached Kentucky team.

Kentucky has suffered through a pair of three-game losing streaks.

UK stands in third place in the SEC East (8-6), and Florida has tie-breaker for SEC tourney first-round bye if the two teams are tied at season's end.

Kentucky's simulated RPI stands at 41 -- with quality wins over a bottomed-out Louisville and a fading West Virginia losing some of their luster.

The Wildcats have lost 4 of their last 7 games.

Kentucky has yet to beat any of the teams currently 1 or 2 in the SEC (LSU, Bama, Tenn., Florida). A last second win over Arkansas is the only thing keeping them from 0-5 against the SEC's best.

Tubby Smith's bunch is a lowly 2-8 versus the RPI top 50, and 1-5 against the top 25 (WVU).

The SEC currently has 4 solid picks in Alabama (quality wins), LSU, Florida and Tennessee. Arkansas is on a roll, and has upended the Gators, Kansas, UT and Bama. That leaves the Cats as the probable 6th team seeking a bid, a tenuous position given the SEC is the 4th rated conference and the Cats' lack of marquee wins.

The Intangibles

Tubby Smith has struggled all year to find consistency, a benchmark the committee looks for when selecting at-large teams. As recently as four games ago, the Cats shuffled their lineup, and they have no streak of more than 5 wins this season to lean on.

Kentucky is a big name, and a big target. Should the committee come down to UK and a mid-major with 20+ wins, the Cats may actually suffer from being made an example of the way Indiana and Notre Dame have been in recent years.

The lack of quality wins UK has is a big factor. Losses happen -- Michigan State has 9 itself -- but UK has only beaten the teams it was supposed to beat, and has struggled with even some of those.

The Wildcats' big home win over then-No. 4 Louisville is useless now, as the Cardinals have flopped their way to a sub-50 RPI and a losing conference record. Huge losses to Kansas and IU only further cement the Cats' big-game woes.

The committee claims it doesn't examine past success, and if that is true, the Cats' merits this year may not be enough to squeak them in.

As noted yesterday, the bottom line is clear: the Cats must win out. A split with Florida and Tennessee is doable, but doesn't absolve any SEC tourney troubles. Leave it up to the committee and a few upstart mid-majors who lose in conference tournaments and the Cats will have a potentially disastrous situation.

Tubby doesn't need to be told how important this is ... and here's hoping neither do his "Unpredictables."

Wildcats on edge: 'The case for ...'

By now, only the most diehard optimist or ambivalent loner feels truly confident in Kentucky's receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. With two huge regular season games remaining, there is much to play for. And the SEC tournament -- a Tubby strength in past years -- also looms large as a way for the Cats to merit a backdoor in with a run. The Wildcats are in perhaps a favorable position, as opposed to, say, the Louisville Cardinals. However, there are many mid-major and similarly mediocre high major programs competing for the final few at-large spots.

Before the Cats take the floor in Knoxville on Wednesday, Bogans' Heroes takes a two-part look at the NCAA tournament resume of the "Unpredictables":

The Tangibles

Kentucky stands at 18 wins (against 10 losses) -- 9 in 2005, 9 in 2006.

Kentucky sits at #41 in the collegerpi.com simulated rankings.

Of its 18 wins, 2 came over teams ranked in the top 15 at the time (West Virginia #7, Louisville #4).

The Wildcats are 8-6 in the SEC, assured of no worse than a .500 conference record. The SEC is the RPI #4 best, according to KenPom's RPI rankings.

Kentucky has won 3 of its last 4, and 8 of 12.

The Cats have 2 wins over top-50 RPI teams, and 8 over top-100 RPI foes.

Kentucky's strength of schedule is a strong #24.

Kentucky's strength of schedule and RPI will most likely rise after games against Florida and Tennessee.

The Intangibles

Kentucky's "bad" losses were mostly to out of conference teams on the road, and minus their (theoretically) starting center, Randolph Morris. Despite going just 8-6 with Morris, Kentucky has played better, and those 6 losses come in a total of 39 points, or roughly 6.5 points per loss. Losses, still, but not the blowouts from December and January.

The Wildcats started 0-2 in the conference as they struggled with the reinsertion of Morris into lineup. Since that start, they are 8-4.

The Wildcats bring with them a huge travelling show, capable of selling out first-round venues, no matter how much they have struggled. This fan loyalty cuts to the heart of the NCAA's mirage campaign which is predicated on (a) competitive games, (b) fair assessment of ability and (c) ticket sales, probably in reverse order. Ergo, the pull of a bubble Kentucky team could come down to money. Who would be more likely to generate revenue, Wichita State or Kentucky?

Tubby Smith's track record in the NCAA tournament, while not to many UK fans' high standards perhaps, is excellent. In eight prior NCAAs as UK coach, he has failed to reach the second weekend only twice, and has never lost a first-round game. If the committee decides to take a look at potential success in assessing two or three worthy teams, such history could help the Cats.

Kentucky has star power in Rajon Rondo and Morris, not to mention Patrick Sparks, whose memorable three in the Elite Eight last year made him a highlight reel regular.

The bottom line is that, even in a rosy scenario, Kentucky is in must-win mode. Were the Cats 23-5, Saturday's loss at LSU would have seemed a missed opportunity, but a valiant effort against the probable SEC champs. But facing a sweaty Selection Sunday, such losses tear holes in the "good" resume. The Cats' failures against teams like Vanderbilt and Alabama hurt, and were it not for some Rondo heroics (Central Florida, Arkansas), this conversation would most likely not be happening at all.

A win over Tennessee, currently an amazing fourth in the collegeRPI index, would probably cement a bid, though wins over both UT and Florida would allow for an SEC tourney flop, while a single win in these last three might not cover their ass.

Would Kentucky be in if the NCAA selection was today? I would lean towards no.

Hardly a pessimist, it seems to this writer that one only has to look at how the Cats fared against quality opponents most of the year to see that marquee wins are lacking. These next two games could determine whether Tubby Smith ekes into next season with a whimper or flames out this year with a roar, leaving a long offseason of gripes, concerns and calls for his head.

Big dog or little cat?

Let's get one thing straight: I believe in Tubby and don't kneejerk in my opinions based on wins and losses.

That the Cats had the ball with a chance to win over the probable SEC regular season outright champs in the closing seconds means these guys are at worst in the conversation for an NCAA bid. Road losses in the SEC happen, especially in this, the downest of down years in a decade. Most of my game keys from yesterday were part of the equation, and the Achilles' heels ended up being a no-show from Joe Crawford and the defense in the second half.

But like a lot of fans, I am steamed about that final play.

Don't get me wrong, it could have gone in, and Sheray Thomas played a great game and certainly bears little ill will for a tough shot in a pressure situation. He should have used the backboard or gone left, but that is hindisight, and had the shot gone in we'd be talking about how clutch he was and what a great call Tubby made in going to the unexpected choice. This game wasn't lost on Thomas' shoulders. It was, however, another one given away when the team executed poorly down the stretch. And the final call reflects much of the fans' frustration with Coach Smith this season.


There has been an undue amount of grumbling this year about recruiting failures and a lack of "UK-caliber" talent. Some of it is warranted -- the junior class is effectively three role players and a team manager (Shagari) -- and the bulk is overblown. But the reason I'm steamed isn't so much that Tubby went to Sheray. From a strategic standpoint, it's a brave and potentially lucrative decision. If the shot falls, Thomas becomes a player other teams have to scout in certain situation, and with Glen "Big baby" Davis clogging up the lane, a shot from Morris is more likely a fadeaway jumper.

The reason I'm steamed has to do with recruiting, but not in the way you probably think.

When you have game-changing talent, and the Cats have it in Morris, Rajon Rondo and Joe Crawford, with Patrick Sparks' main talent being ridiculous cojones, you have to live and die by it. If you're going to recruit gamers, and if you're going to tell a future Morris or Crawford (or Brandan Wright or Tyler Hansbrough) that you want him to be "the man," then it seems logical to me that you'd want to give him the chance to perform in the clutch.

Morris, by Tubby's admission, was the decoy. Fine. Rondo is the ballhandler. Fine. But Crawford can drive, shoot and hits his free throws at a 70% clip this season. Is there any time at which Tubby Smith told Sheray Thomas, "Come to Kentucky and you'll be 'The Man'"? I cannot believe that is true.

So Tubby again confounds his critics and supporters alike by going away from (a) the proven players, (b) the players you recruited for this very moment and (c) the future of the program.

No one can ever say Tubby Smith isn't his own man, even with the wolves nipping at his heels.

Big Game in the Bayou

The stakes go up tremendously for the Wildcats today with an SEC road game at Lousiana State. A win would put the Cats in the driver's seat for an at-large bid (something I feel they would get with two wins in the next four anyway), and keep pace with the Gators in the East Division. Even moreso, a win would give Kentucky a so-called quality win over a ranked team, something their tournament resume is direly lacking at this juncture.

A few keys to look for:

Continued strong defensive pressure -- In the three recent wins, all with Tubby Smith's new lineup rotation, the starters -- while offensively challenged -- have set the tone with excellent defense and solid ballhandling. In all three games, the Cats held the opponent in check until the first substitutions. Kentucky then brings in its "B" team of three McDonald's All-Americans, something even a talented Tigers squad can't come close to matching. If LSU breaks the starters down quickly and forces Tubby to go to Rajon Rondo, Joe Crawford and Randolph Morris early, the pattern shifts dramatically.

Which Rondo shows up? -- The birthday boy on Wednesday, Rondo looked like the 20+ assists in a game man he was at Oak Hill rather than the confused and sulking benched star he was against South Carolina. It was a welcome change, and would be a harbringer for the remainder of the season. While 12 assists would be unexpected, a 6-assist, low turnover game while pestering Tack Minor and the other Tigers guards would be much needed. Making his free throws and avoiding bad shots would be icing on the cake for the Cats.

Karate Morris? -- If Morris must play early and often, foul trouble will be key to the game. Unlike against Ole Miss or even USC, Kentucky's big man will be most likely matched up against Glen "Big Baby" Davis, as skilled a post player as there is in the conference. Morris' main concern should be rebounding and smart defensive play (go straight up with those arms, Gimel!) rather than trying to force the offense. Rondo penetrating and dishing could be huge for Morris getting on track early. Negating LSU's interior offense would be tatamount to victory for the Cats.

Who steps up? -- The Cats have gotten outstanding individual performances -- sometimes from unlikely sources -- in most of their big wins this season. Despite the hopes of Kentucky fans, I don't expect to see similar results from walk-on Preston LeMaster against the more athletic and talented Tigers today, however stranger things have happened. More likely would be a standout offensive performance from Crawford or one of the two junior utilitymen Bobby Perry or Sheray Thomas. A double-digit -- and, more importantly, solid shooting -- game from either could be the difference.

Trust in Tubby -- The single biggest factor down ther stretch for the Wildcats is their newfound trust in the head man. Once Smith exerted his might and reshuffled the lineup two things have happened: (1) renewed focus on defense, Tubby's signature at UK, and (2) better play from the star sophomores as they accepted their coaches' doctrine. If these Cats are to walk away victorious in this one, and in upcoming grudge matches with Tennessee and Florida, they will do so with defensive pressure and continued unselfish offensive play, not with individual skill. This is not because they are lacking that skill, but because that's the formula that works for Tubby.

I think the Cats can win, but wouldn't be disheartened beyond hope if they do not. The worst case scenario is Morris foul trouble, Rondo reverting to the one-on-one offense and three-point shots and an off night for Patrick Sparks and Crawford shooting the ball. That would most likely mean a double-digit loss, something the bubble-riffic Cats cannot afford at this stage.

But I suspect there is a surprise in store for Cats fans, either from deep on the bench or from one of the stars, that could make this another step on the road to recovery for the Cats.

LeMasters of their domain

Throwback week is sitting well with the Kentucky Wildcats, who looked like the Cats of old in demolishing a gimpy Ole Miss Rebels on Wednesday. I like the old school uniforms a lot. I like the 40-point feel-good (for UK fans) 80-40 drubbing of an SEC opponent even more.

Nevermind that Ole Miss was playing with a heavy heart, missing its leading scorer and rebounder from a 4-9 conference team. Nevermind that the Cats had everything to play for (NCAA hopes) while its opponent had next to nothing (pride, or coaches' jobs). Focus only on the issues at hand: bench performance, defense, scoring prowess, chemistry, Preston LeMaster's shooting form.


Excuse me?

As my partner, Rance, noted, LeMaster's breakout four three-pointer game was the sort of Kentucky moment this team has lacked pretty much all year. A home win over Louisville was probably the closest thing, but that was another "must win" game against a big time opponent. The senior walk-on's spotlight moment was far more organic, and it was the kind of team-oriented occasion that helps bring a group of players closer together.

Several more of those questions were also addressed, most notably how the "disgruntled" Rajon Rondo would play after his career-low 2-point outing in Columbia on Saturday and whether the practice-graded starting five situation would continue to pay dividends. Against the hapless Rebels, the answers to both were dramatic and emphatic.

Rondo -- on his 20th birthday, no less -- entered the game and immediately ran the floor like a champ, dishing out 5 first-half assists and playing his trademark pesky defense. His backcourt mate, Patrick Sparks, even lobbed up a softball for Rondo to flush down. For the game, the supposedly cancerous teammate Rondo doled out a career-best 12 assists to no turnovers and even sank his only two free throws for good measure. Maybe even more importantly, the sophomore reveled in his passing, turning down a couple of fairly open looks to dish the ball off, and assisting on all of the walk-on LeMaster's four treys.

"And the one he missed was from me, too," Rondo said after the game, grinning.


Wins like this one are infectious, and while it's great to see LeMaster shine, and to witness fellow senior Brandon Stockton tally a career-high 9 points as well, this team will still only go as far as Sparks and the trio of talented sophomores takes it. While the contributions of role players such as Bobby Perry (team-high 7 boards) and Lukasz Obrzut (2 of team's 10 blocks) are critical, the continued development of center Randolph Morris (10 points, 5 boards in limited time) and Joe Crawford (team-leading 17 points on 7-11 shooting) is fun to watch, and a great omen for the rest of the year.

Crawford, in particular, has impressed with his willingness to be a team scoring leader. The role is there for the taking, and it benefits both UK and Crawford for him to continue to push the envelope. Crawford is a gifted scorer and should not shy from taking shots. Obviously, if they aren't falling, the situation changes, but this team needs him to approach 15 points a game, and his outside shooting is a great compliment to Sparks outside and Morris inside.


Morris looked great again, scoring on a creative variety of moves and rebounding in similar fashion to Saturday's double-double game. The Cats really area on the verge of having perhaps their best pivot since Nazr and Magloire roamed the paint, and Morris may actually be more talented than any single UK center since the 80s. As the Georgia native progresses and soaks up the messages from his coach and others, he'll only get better. Let's hope he sticks around to show UK fans their faith in him and their second chance was worth it.

But despite all the personal accomplishments on Wednesday, the real winner was the defense. No, Ole Miss does not resemble an NCAA team in scoring ability by any wide stretch. But echoing Coach Smith, any time you hold a team to 22% shooting, especially an SEC team, you're doing your job very well.

Though the Cats' offensive woes this year were glaring, Tubby instituted the new grading system not to get better offense, but to get better defensive pressure. Thus far, the difference from the Florida and Tennessee losses has been dramatic. Better perimeter pressure, better help defense and much improved interior defense from Morris and Co.

If this team is, in fact, righting its ship at the right time, only a return to Tubby-style defense will carry the day. That, and maybe a few more 12-point outings from Preston LeMaster.

Excuse me?